Friday, March 1, 2013

Fallacies

Biased Sample Fallacy
This fallacy makes claims based upon certain data without taking into account other factors that could be affecting the data. For example, on page 282 of Richard Muller's book Physics for Future Presidents, there are two graphs showing the monetary damage caused by hurricanes on the US east coast from 1900 to 2004. The first graph is rather alarming, showing that the damages were almost non existent in the 1900's, and have shot up recently. However, when adjusting for inflation and more people living on the coast, there is no specific trend. http://books.google.com/books?id=6DBnS2g-KrQC&pg=PA283&lpg=PA283&dq=%22physics+for+future+presidents%22+hurricane+graphs&source=bl&ots=_0nTQEzmDs&sig=0FP7n98O4Qw14jlCR3_VPaymvjc&hl=en&sa=X&ei=SrAwUZzoBJCp0AHQtYDwDQ&ved=0CDAQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=%22physics%20for%20future%20presidents%22%20hurricane%20graphs&f=false

Prisoner's Dilemma Fallacy
This fallacy is that two people in jail are given an option of either staying silent or accusing their partner. If both stay silent, they get a light punishment each. If one talks and the other doesn't, the one that talked gets away free and the other gets a heavy punishment. If both talk, they both get a medium sentence. It makes sense for them to stay silent together, but to each individually it makes sense to talk. So if both trust each other, they will be better off than if they act in their best interest. This is shown in the stock market crash of 1929. People had the option of doing nothing, in which they might lose their money, or rushing to the bank and pulling their money out. Since many people took the latter option, they all lost money when the bank couldn't pay them all. However, if they all had done nothing, then their money would have been fine.

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